Programma: PRIN
Responsabile scientifico per il dipartimento: Paolo Ruggieri
Struttura principale: DIFA
Data inizio e data fine: dal 30/11/2023 al 30/11/2025
TRANSLATE: eventi estremi e adattamento climatico
Il progetto TRANSLATE sviluppa strumenti per analizzare eventi alluvionali estremi in Europa, combinando previsioni stagionali e modelli d’impatto per supportare strategie di adattamento locale.
TRANSLATE: Extreme Events and Climate Adaptation
TRANSLATE develops tools to analyze extreme flood events in Europe, combining seasonal forecasts and impact models to support local adaptation strategies.
Abstract
The project TRANSLATE (climaTe Risk informAtion from eNSembLe weAther and climaTe prEdictions) addresses the need to improve the understanding and predictability of hydrological extremes over the European region. TRANSLATE aims to develop event-based storylines that describe the unfolding of flood events that are unprecedented in the relatively short observational record using seasonal reforecasts of river streamflow from the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). The aim of TRANSLATE is to develop a tool methodology to be used to develop risk storylines, including causal networks of physical and socio-economic indicators of extreme weather events. The ultimate goal is to produce actionable information that can assist in the implementation of adaptation actions by local stakeholders. The project builds on an integrated methodology that combines ensemble prediction systems with an open-source impact model to estimate the expected damage of unprecedented extremes. The core result is a catalogue of unprecedented flood events with high potential for direct economic damage to the target region, illustrating the patterns of atmospheric circulation associated with high-impact events. The tool methodology can be applied to any catchment where input data can be systematically validated due to its customizable structure.