Thunderstorm initiation

Forecasting intense summer thunderstorms in Central and Southern Europe is challenging. Recent advancements in convective-scale data assimilation and ensemble forecasting aim to enhance high-resolution forecasts. A key question is whether high-resolution observations can improve numerical weather prediction through assimilation or model evaluation. Convective initiation often depends on local air mass convergence linked to mesoscale circulations, suggesting that better modeling of these circulations could enhance short-term forecasts. The 'Swabian MOSES 2023' field campaign provides observations in complex terrain, including a network of Doppler wind lidars. This presentation will introduce the campaign, its observation strategies, and ongoing research, focusing on verifying operational high-resolution forecasts and assimilation in a quasi-operational system.

Relatrice:

Annika Oertel - Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research (IMKTRO)
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Germany

Her research aims at understanding predictability of atmospheric processes in the mid-latitudes across scales ranging from the micro- to the synoptic scale as well as understanding the underlying physical processes. To accomplish this, she focuses on synergistic analysis of numerical weather prediction model data and observations.